自上世纪80年代开始,项目融资这一模式在基础设施的建设中得到了大量的使用。但是,其失败的案例也非常之多。很重要的原因之一在于项目融资中没有令人满意的风险的评价与分配。现有的风险评价是基于传统的折现流方法(DCF,Discounted-Cash-Flow),这一方法忽视项目运行过程中项目存在的灵活性,以及项目管理者对项目管理的主观能动性,因此,低估了项目的价值。导致不准确的风险评价。本书引入实物期权理论对项目融资中大型基建项目的风险与不确定性进行评价,在案例分析的基础上,得出更为合理的风险管理框架。
随着我国经济的快速发展,大型基础建设项目采用PPP/PFI等模式越来越多。基于传统的现金流折现的决策理论与方法存在很大的局限,而实物期权理论充分考虑项目管理中的灵活性,给项目带来资产价值增值,为正确决策提供更好的依据。本书引入实物期权理论,对PPP/PFI风险进行分析,并采用三个典型的案例进行实证研究。在此基础上,本书总结了PPP/PFI项目中存在的期权形式,并提出基于实物期权理论的PPP/PFI项目风险管理模式。
本书可供管理类研究生、教师、科研人员和政府相关机构决策者使用。
前言
Preface
Chapter 1 Theories of PPP/PFI and Real Option
1.1 Introduction to PPP/PFI
1.2 Risk Management Aspects of PPP/PFI
1.3 Real Option Theory and Application
1.4 Summary
Chapter 2 Option Design Strategies for Infrastructure Projects
2.1 Interpreting Risks in an Alternative Manner
2.2 Risk Management Strategies at Firm and Independent Project Levels
2.3 Short Case Studies on Flexibility and Options
2.4 Option Design Strategies and Their Relevance to Risks
2.5 Summary
Chapter 3 Major Case Study One. D~bhol Power Project in India
3.1 Background of the D~bhol Power Project
3.2 Real Options Embedded in the Project
3.3 Quantitative Analysis of the Project
3.4 Summary
Chapter 4 Maior Case Study Two:The Malaysia-Singapore Second Crossing
4.1 Project Background
4.2 Conventional Financial Analysis and Cash Flow Models
4.3 Project Evaluation Using Real Option
4.4 Flexibility in Design and Execution
4.5 Summary
Chapter 5 Maior Case Study Three:The Wastewater Treatment Plant in Southern China
5.1 Background of the Project
5.2 Details of the Transaction
5.3 Risk Factors Faced by the Concessionaire
5.4 Real Options Identified in the Project
5.5 Evaluation of the Transaction
5.6 Negotiation Band
5.7 Risk Comparison between the Two Bidding Scenarios
5.8 Summary
Chapter 6 New Framework of Risk Management
6.1 Common Types of Options in PPP/PFI Projects
6.2 An Integrated Real Option--Risk Management Framework
6.3 Option Modeling
6.4 Real Option and Negotiation
6.5 Future Research Direction
References
Afterwords