本书以黄淮海平原冬小麦为研究对象，通过对气象资料再分析，系统评价了黄淮海平原的自然环境条件、农业气候资源特点的变化和分异规律，在此基础上，探明了黄淮海平原冬小麦气候干旱及对产量的潜在影响，以及冬小麦水分生产力估算，为确保我国粮食稳产增产及农业气象部门合理防灾减灾提供科学决策支持。

Chapter 1 Climate change and crop water productivity: opportunities for improvement
1.1 Climate change and crop water productivity (CWP)
1.1.1 Climate change and agricultural production
1.1.2 The potential evapotranspiration and meteorological drought
1.1.3 Water storage
1.1.4 The impact of climate change on crop yields
1.1.5 Crop water productivity
1.2 Context, objectives and outline of the book
1.2.1 Context
1.2.2 Objectives
1.2.3 Outline
1.3 Study region and data collection
1.3.1 Study region
1.3.2 Data collection
1.4 Methods
1.4.1 Calculation of potential evapotranspiration
1.4.2 DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for yield simulation
1.4.3 Satellite-based actual evapotranspiration estimation using the SEBAL method
References
Chapter 2 Impacts of climate change on potential evapotranspiration under a historical period and future climate scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Materials and methods
2.2.1 Study area
2.2.2 Meteorological data
2.2.3 Estimation of potential evapotranspiration
2.2.4 Time series analysis to quantify major trends
2.2.5 Sensitivity analysis and multivariate regression
2.3 Results
2.3.1 Historical and future trends of meteorological variables
2.3.2 Spatial and temporal characteristics of ET
2.3.3 Temporal variation of sensitivity coefficients
2.3.4 Regional response of ET0 to climate change
2.4 Discussion
2.4.1 Spatio-temporal evolution of ET
2.4.2 Impact of meteorological variables on ET
2.4.3 Estimated precipitation deficit and impact on agriculture
2.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 3 Spatio-temporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Materials and methods
3.2.1 Study region
3.2.2 Climate data
3.2.3 Drought area data
3.2.4 Calculations of drought indices
3.2.5 Drought identification using run theory
3.3 Results
3.3.1 Selection of preferable drought index
3.3.2 Drought characteristics over the past 50 years
3.3.3 Drought prediction for 2010–2099 under RCP8.5 scenario
3.4 Discussion
3.4.1 Trend variations between different drought indices
3.4.2 Applicability of drought index
3.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 4 Potential effect of drought on winter wheat yield using DSSATCERES-Wheat model over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Materials and methods
4.2.1 Study region and data description
4.2.2 Calculation of precipitation deficit for winter wheat
4.2.3 Crop model description
4.2.4 Statistical tests for trend analysis
4.3 Results
4.3.1 DSSAT evaluation
4.3.2 Trends and persistence of typical growth date and precipitation deficit
4.3.3 Variation of yield reduction rate
4.3.4 Cumulative probability of yield reduction rate
4.4 Discussion
4.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 5 Investigation of the impact of climate change on wheat yield using DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Materials and methods
5.2.1 Study region
5.2.2 CERES-Wheat crop model
5.2.3 Simulated scenarios: past, future and isolated variables
5.3 Results
5.3.1 Testing of CERES-Wheat model
5.3.2 Changes in growth duration and related climate variables
5.3.3 Changes in yield and the contributions of single climate variables
5.4 Discussion
5.4.1 Negative impact of increasing solar radiation
5.4.2 Positive impact of warming temperature and increasing precipitation
5.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 6 The impacts of climate change on wheat yield based on the DSSATCERES-Wheat model under the RCP8.5 scenario in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China
6.1 Introd