非对称冲突的研究在国际关系及安全研究领域异军突起，成为一项极受学界关注的新课题。

以数条通向非对称冲突的路线图将以往研究著作中简单化、片面化的冲突理论进行了整合与改进。这一全新的理论框架阐释了小国或非国家政治实体在冲突中决策的潜力，在预测、认识未来非对称冲突走向上具有较高的参考价值。

本书在案例分析中放弃了常见的大国视角，主要通过小国的决策视角解读各场冲突的内外成因。这一多样化的研究角度对于非对称冲突的解读更为准确、清晰。 

马林科·波维奇是一位塞尔维亚裔加拿大学者，现任教于位于荷兰莱顿大学海牙校区的安全及事务学院，主讲关系与外交硕士课程。波维奇曾在意大利特伦托大学获得关系博士学位，并在莱顿大学获得关系及外交硕士学位。波维奇主攻国家战略、地缘政治、冲突与资源、有组织犯罪以及争议地区等方面的研究，著作包括《俄罗斯的领土争端战略》、《跨国有组织犯罪与恐怖主义》、《意大利黑手党：发展中国家的暴力产业》、《从发展角度再探世界分析》、《叛乱、内战与支持》以及《情绪可视化：与战争》等学术书籍及论文。此前，波维奇曾任职于多国政府部门及非政府组织，负责实用政策分析、咨询、政策监督以及兵棋推演等工作内容。波维奇能够流利地运用英语、塞尔维亚语、克罗地亚语以及波斯尼亚语进行沟通及写作。

《弱者的战争—— 后冷战时代常规非对称冲突的特征与起源》是他的新学术作品。译者简介：徐无，1986年生于北京。加拿大西蒙·佛雷泽大学工商管理硕士（MBA）、政治科学与经济双学位学士。毕业后曾在温哥华贸易局等多家非政府机构任职，从事跨文化舆情与传播、公共政策研究、传统媒体及新媒体推广等工作，具有丰富的汉英笔译、口译经验。

《弱者的战争 —— 后冷战时代常规非对称冲突的特征与起源》研究冷战后国家间常规冲突的关系及战略研究著作。作者马林科·波维奇对海湾战争、摩尔多瓦内战以及北约空袭南联盟等后冷战案例进行详细检视，以全新的角度对交战双方实力差距极大的非对称武装冲突进行了深入探讨。书中运用了社科领域较为罕见的定性比较分析法，基于一定量的冲突案例得出了数条冲突路径，为探索当今武装冲突起源的一般规律提供了新的发现与思路。生于塞尔维亚，作者马林科·波维奇亲身经历了南斯拉夫内战以及北约对南联盟发动的野蛮空袭，对于国家遭受霸权主义压迫的惨痛历史深有体会。在分析冲突起源与发展路径的同时，作者从小国的观点出发，点出了应对大国威胁时的一些导向必败之战的政治与外交陷阱，得出了一些在维护区域和平，规避战争冲突方面值得深度思考的教训与经验。 

第一章 概论··········································································· 001

本书的内容架构···························································· 019

第二章 小国非对称冲突理论概述············································· 021

战争的理性主义解读··················································· 024

非对称冲突理论························································· 028

小国的安全策略························································· 033

小国的作战策略························································· 037

冲突条件列表···························································· 042

第三章 运用定性比较分析法（QCA）阐释冲突的发展途径········· 051

非对称冲突分析的操作化············································· 058

1.1 案例选择······························································ 059

1.2 争端结果······························································ 064

1.3 冲突条件······························································ 065

1.4 分配分值······························································

小国选择冲突的途径··················································· 069

讨论······································································· 076

第四章 伊拉克：与美国及三十三个盟国的军事冲突···················· 084

海湾危机的传统解读··················································· 085

必要条件：经济危机·················································· 092

2.1 两伊战争意外失利··················································· 092

2.2 经济危机······························································ 094

2.3 政权形象崩溃························································· 101

2.4 库尔德问题··························································· 102

异常信念：INUS 条件················································ 103

3.1 霍布斯主义世界观·············································· 104

3.2 暴力倾向······························································ 105

3.3 自恋主义······························································ 111

3.4 心理异常······························································ 113

3.5 对于美国的错误认识················································· 115

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